Blatant Homerism: Mateer-ial world
Let’s make a couple things clear about the Oklahoma Sooners’ new starting quarterback, John Mateer.
First, in terms of realistic solutions to this particular QB crisis facing OU, you couldn’t ask for a better one.
On3’s industry-consensus rankings listed the former Washington State Cougar as the top player on the transfer market this year. Who’s to say if that will prove accurate, or if Mateer is even the best QB in this crop? However, no QB who is expected to return to school in 2025 can match Mateer’s statistical production from this season. He ranked eighth nationally in passer rating in 2024, barely trailing Tulane-turned-Duke QB Darian Mensah among likely returnees. Meanwhile, five field generals outgained Mateer on the ground this year – and only Blake Horvath of Navy and New Mexico’s Devon Dampier will return to CFB in ‘25.
For what it’s worth – and I concede it may not be much – PFF gave Mateer an Offense grade of 81.7. Among QBs with at least 300 dropbacks this season, that put him at 29th overall. For comparison’s sake, Mateer would have ranked fifth among QBs in the SEC this season, a shade ahead of LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier.
But the kicker for OU is that Mateer studied under new Sooners offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle for two years at Wazzu. He knows Arbuckle’s verbiage. He knows the teaching points and expectations of playing QB for Arbuckle. He knows what it’s like to execute Arbuckle’s offense as the starting quarterback.
In sum, installing an entirely new offensive scheme at a program becomes much easier when the player most responsible for its success or failure has experience running it. There are probably QBs with more pure talent who could be coaxed into hitting the transfer portal, but having Mateer at the controls frees up valuable bandwidth for Arbuckle to focus on the broader project of getting the new offense ready to roll.
On the other hand… Being the best among realistic solutions does not make that solution ideal.
Among the legitimate concerns about Mateer – aside from the fact that he doesn’t go by “Johnny” – he primarily faced Mountain West Conference defenses in his only season as a starter. Rolling up eye-popping stats against teams like New Mexico and Hawaii doesn’t hit the same way as doing it against Texas and Alabama – or even Oklahoma State and Baylor. It comes as little surprise that Mateer’s numbers looked less spectacular this season against opponents such as Texas Tech and Washington. (To be fair, this cuts both ways: Mateer was playing alongside MWC-caliber personnel.)
Moreover, as a dual-threat QB, Mateer’s greatest value likely comes from the rushing side of the equation. As proof, keep in mind Mateer compiled nearly 800 rushing yards this year despite the Cougars allowing 31 sacks, which ranked 99th nationally.
Can a quarterback who runs as often as Mateer did this season survive in the SEC? At 178 attempts, Mateer had 26 more carries than Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, who led the SEC’s QBs in rushes. Naturally, Arbuckle could limit the amount of punishment his QB absorbs in games, but dialing back on Mateer’s strength seems to defeat the purpose of bringing him on in the first place. It’s worth noting that PFF graded Mateer as an elite runner at QB, which offset a pedestrian Pass grade that ranked 78th overall among qualifying players.
Where have all the QBs gone?
Ultimately, excitement may vary around Sooner Nation about OU’s new acquisition.
Mateer is low-wattage as college football stars go, which is partly a function of toiling in the obscurity of Pullman, Washington. He didn’t have much fanfare as a recruit in high school, and there is little buzz in draftnik circles about his NFL potential. Combine that with the level of competition the Cougars played this season, and any skepticism feels understandable.
The reality, though, is that the sport is going to be hurting for knockout QBs next season. For instance, here are the 10 returning QBs whom PFF graded ahead of Mateer this year (i.e., in the top 28):
Sam Leavitt, Arizona State (10th overall)
Devon Dampier, New Mexico (11th)
Cade Klubnik, Clemson (14th)
Taylen Green, Arkansas (16th)
Drew Allar, Penn State (17th)
Kevin Jennings, SMU (18th)
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (22nd)
Gio Lopez, South Alabama (23rd)
Kaidon Salter, Colorado (25th)
Josh Hoover, TCU (26th)
Of PFF’s top 28 in 2023, 18 of those QBs were back in college this season. That group of returnees included five players who graded out in the top 10.
You could apply a spinoff of the same question I had a few weeks ago about Arbuckle’s hire to OU acquiring Mateer: Who are the good quarterbacks in college football right now? Maybe the pendulum swinging away from offensive innovation also holds up regarding the quality of QB play at this moment.
Playoff picks
Indiana (+7.5) at Notre Dame
I realize the Hoosiers weren’t really tested by their schedule this year, but you could say the same for ND. IU coach Curt Cignetti will have his team in position to steal one. Fighting Irish by a field goal.
SMU at Penn State (-8.5)
Does the weather really matter here? No, but I don’t mean that in the way you think I do. Nittany Lions, 27-17.
Clemson at Texas (-12)
How the hell is Clemson supposed to score? This has shutout potential. Longhorns 20, Tigers 3.
Tennessee (+7.5) at Ohio State
The Buckeyes seem to be a completely different team depending on whether or not Michigan is on the other sideline. I kinda think they will win the whole tournament, which would make for some serious cognitive dissonance around Ryan Day in Columbus. Home team by six.