Blatant Homerism: Fumbling towards mediocrity
In all of the post hoc analysis of the Oklahoma Sooners’ dismal 2024 season, the subject of ball security doesn’t seem to be getting its due.
OU put the football on the ground with alarming frequency last year. In 13 games, the Sooners coughed up the ball a whopping 26 times, the second-highest total in the country.
Naturally, more fumbles tend to produce more giveaways. Statistically speaking, recovering fumbles tends to be a 50-50 proposition, but variance worked against OU in ‘24: Of the Sooners’ 26 fumbles, the team lost 15 of them, the highest number in the entire country. According to ESPN stats guru Bill Connelly, losing a turnover usually shifts the final scoring margin roughly five points away from a team in any given game. If true, OU’s fumble-itis took away about six points per game last year.
Ball security was bad enough for the Sooners all season, but it bit them particularly badly in conference play. Thirteen of their 15 lost fumbles on the season occurred in their eight SEC games. In games against Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Missouri – all five of which were losses – OU fumbled a total of 20 times and lost a total of 12 fumbles to the opposing team.
Why did the fumble virus hit this particular OU team so hard? You could come up with any number of equally plausible explanations from poor preparation to inexperience to outright bad luck.
Notably, however, quarterbacks Jackson Arnold and Michael Hawkins accounted for 10 of those 20 total fumbles in the aforementioned losses. Perhaps transfer QB John Mateer will help limit the fumbling in 2025. Despite playing nearly 800 snaps for the Cougars, he put the ball on the deck four times at Washington State in ‘ 24.
Whatever the case may be, OU cannot afford to continue fumbling at such a dramatic rate in the coming season if the Sooners hope to post a better record. If OU head coach Brent Venables and his staff have any ideas about how to improve the team’s ball security, best start putting them into place now.
Playoff picks
National Championship: Ohio State (-8.5) vs. Notre Dame
You can understand why the point spread in this game has trended to the Fighting Irish since it opened last week: ND seems built to keep these kinds of games close. Also, keep in mind bettors have profited handsomely from backing the Irish this season, going 13-2 against the spread.
Acknowledging all of that, it’s still hard to envision ND winning this game.
The Buckeyes looked like the same erratic team we saw during the regular season for long stretches versus Texas in the Cotton Bowl – and they still won by two touchdowns. No need to delve too far into the individual matchups and possible game plans here. Ohio State is on another planet at this point in a very long season. Don’t be surprised if the Irish get overwhelmed. Ohio State 28, ND 13.
Picks and Recs: Season two of Bad Sisters
Consider this more of a pan than a pick.
Part of what made the first run of Bad Sisters so great – namely its cutting dialogue – carries over into season two. However, the sequel is missing a villain who can hold a candle to the insidiously cruel husband portrayed by Danish actor Claes Bang in season one. While the first season’s backdrop of an emotionally abusive marriage gave it some emotional heft, the second seems like an excuse just to get the characters back on screen together.
As tends to be the case when creators try to replicate the brilliance of a limited series’ first season, this Apple TV+ show should have been a one-and-done.