Blatant Homerism: The ranking conundrum

The body of the 2024 college football season isn’t even cold yet, but that isn’t stopping the punditry from already issuing their “way-too-early” guesses at the top 25 for 2025. Spoiler alert: There’s a lot of skepticism about the Oklahoma Sooners.

Let’s take a peak at where OU is checking in with prognosticators:

So four of the six sets of rankings don’t have the Sooners in the top 25. But can you blame anyone who holds a low opinion of OU’s prospects? The 2024 squad often looked hapless as Brent Venables’ team bumbled its way to a 6-7 record.

What did On3’s Ari Wasserman and Andy Staples see coming out of Norman to suggest the Sooners merited a spot at 18 for the coming season? Wasserman noted the preponderance of injuries that befell the team last year. He also praised the offseason acquisitions of Washington State offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer.

In fairness, an appropriate preseason ranking for OU depends on what you’re attempting to rank.

If you are trying to create a set of power ratings based on the strength of the teams, I feel confident the Sooners will be among the 25 best in the nation. In fact, I’d put them closer to 15 than 25.

The depth of talent on a team’s roster versus that of its opponents remains the strongest predictor of success in college football. Perhaps fewer than 10 teams in the country can stack up with the Sooners there. Meanwhile, even if a change in the degree of difficulty from the ‘24 season puts a governor on Mateer’s production, adding him to the mix behind center presents an upgrade over what OU had with Jackson Arnold at the helm.

Bottom line: If you would favor teams like BYU, Texas Tech and UNLV right now on a neutral field against OU this fall, you should rethink that.

On the other hand, ranking teams based on their expected levels of achievement should produce a more bearish projection for OU. According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, the Sooners played seven teams from the SEC in ‘24 that finished in the top 20 in overall efficiency. Seeing as they’re adding Michigan (No. 26) to the same conference slate, they still have to play a steady diet of stout opponents in ‘25.

OU could improve materially, in other words, and still only add one or two more wins to its final record from ‘24.

Castiglione unplugged

OU athletic director Joe Castiglione did an informative radio interview last week with play-by-play announcer Toby Rowland in which he offered his take on the future of compensating college athletes. He sounded dubious about the regulatory structure arising from the House settlement, which would include a decisive enforcement program to strike down “above-market” deals for players’ name, image and likeness rights. Specifically, Castiglione said he anticipated the forthcoming system will face “logical” challenges in the courts.

Castiglione seems convinced it will eventually take a federal law or a collective bargaining agreement to provide long-term stability in college sports. (That makes two of us.)

Picks and Recs: Costco Chicken Bake

For years, I’ve treated the idea of setting foot in a Costco with about as much enthusiasm as I would have for a day of antiquing. I broke down recently, though, and got a membership to America’s favorite no-frills wholesaler. The best way to power through an afternoon of stocking up on jars of kimchi as big as your head is to start with a chicken bake – best described as a “chicken Caesar calzone” – from the food court for just $3.99. Wash it down with a cold brew mocha freeze, and there’s no pile of discount men’s outerwear stacked high enough on a folding table to keep you from getting to that Grizzly Mountain shacket you’ve had your eye on.

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LatestAllen KenneyOklahoma, Sooners, Brent Venables, Joe CastiglioneComment